Handicapping the Debt Ceiling Debate

Handicapping the Debt Ceiling Debate by Donald Marron of TaxVox.

This could be the issue that creates a pool of reliable gypsy moth Republicans in the House. In the 90s, there were 75 Republicans that Clinton could count on to vote with the Democrats and roll the leadership on fiscal issue. I suspect that this vote will create a similar group, since not raising the limit is unthinkable.

Luckly, there are only 25 votes needed, not 75 – and there are 62 Republicans from districts Obama won in 2008.

I suspect that there will be some kind of deficit reduction or the promise of it. Maybe an earmark free omnibus with cuts to both defense and civil spending for the current fiscal year might give the GOP its face saving deficit reduction vote. Another possibility is that the Fiscal Commission could be reconstituted, with more Republican votes and an up and down vote on the end product as a condition of debt limit extension. Moodys and the Chinese will like that one. It is time to move the process from recommendations to legislation and a gimmick the the Commission seems like just the ticket.