Wednesday, November 06, 2019

S. 2765: The Bipartisan Congressional Budget Reform Act

Senate Budget, Markup of S. 2765: The Bipartisan Congressional Budget Reform Act, November 6, 2019

S. 2765 ignores the problems with the TCJA, so we must oppose it. Dealing only with spending cuts harms the general population, leading to a slower economy. Indeed, any spending cuts must be avoided. If anything, secular stagnation is an endemic issue because low marginal rates on high income CEOs invites the rent-seeking we warned about in 2017. This can be remedied by tax increases, a higher minimum wage and increased transfer payments and salary levels.

We deal with the provisions of the bill mentioned in the hearing announcement in turn.

Move the budget resolution to a two-year cycle, while maintaining annual appropriations.

It is more important to enact automatic appropriations than to adjust the budget cycle.

Require more involvement from Senate spending and taxing committees, including by requiring detailed spending and revenue plans to better inform budget development.

The opposite strategy is preferable. Embargo detailed information until an agreement is reached. If one cannot be reached, spending caps should be used to allocations, although such caps should be adjusted to conform with those enacted in the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019.

Focus on fiscal sustainability by requiring the budget resolution to establish a debt-to-GDP target backed by a deficit-reducing special reconciliation process to promote adherence to the budget plan.

Debt to GDP ratios are not important. A better measure is the relationship of debt to income taxes collected. The usual ratio is $6 to $9 of debt for every dollar of income tax collected. The current ratio is $13 to one. This is unsustainable and points to the need for both higher tax rates and increased income for contractors, beneficiaries and government employees and a higher minimum wage.

Create a mechanism within the regular budget process to end the brinksmanship surrounding the statutory debt limit by conforming the limit to levels called for in the budget resolution.

Ideally, the requirement for a Debt Limit should be revoked. According to the 14th Amendment, default is unconstitutional. 

Establish an optional new bipartisan budget pathway through which the budget would set a glideslope of deficit reduction that includes health care, revenue levels, and appropriations, and tax expenditures. Such bipartisan budgets would require the support of at least 60 Senators, including at least 15 members of the minority party, and would be considered in the Senate under expedited procedures jointly agreed to by the Majority and Minority Leaders.

and

Provide a more orderly, deliberative process for Senate consideration of budget resolutions that preserves the ability of Senators on both sides of the aisle to offer amendments.

Proposing bipartisanship is helpful, although it should not be used to hold the Budget hostage to demands that no revenue increases be considered. Giving the minority a veto on the process is a sure path to continued gridlock and financial ruin for the United States. This provision, like the one following, is a sure sign that the Majority Party is expecting to become the Minority. Revenue measures will be among the reasons for this. When the people speak, bipartisanship should not hamper the change called for.

Enhance fiscal transparency by requiring that up-to-date tabulations of congressional budget action be publicly posted and that information on the interest effects of authorizing and revenue legislation be included in cost estimates prepared by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).  The legislation also supports transparency efforts underway at CBO.

The Center agrees with these provisions, but urges the committee to address alternatives proposed by the Minority.

Require CBO and the Government Accountability Office to regularly review and report to Congress on portfolios of federal spending to help lawmakers make more informed budgetary decisions

The Center urges CBO and GAO to also address the impact of revenue enactments, including whether their stated goals have materialized. So far, regarding the TCJA, they have not. Sadly, our predictions were more accurate than those provided at the time. Rent-seeking has resulted in anemic increases in wages and huge benefits for the Donor Class of CEOs.

These provisions, nor our suggested alternatives, are likely to go further than markup. The near future will be taken up with an impeachment trial, lest the Majority convince the President to resign. Vice President Pence’s record as Governor of Indiana bespeaks a willingness to support a bipartisan process, so he may sign this legislation, provided he is not prosecuted for his role in the Trump Presidency.

President Pelosi will not sign this bill, or any process reform that does not raise marginal tax rates on salaries and increased tax rates on capital gains, corporations, dividends and pass-through payments. Given the economic ideology of the Majority, compromise on revenues will be likely. Without such compromise, this markup is a waste of time.

Attachment One - Fixing a Broken Budget and Spending Process: Securing the Nation’s Fiscal Future, June 26, 2019

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