Protecting the Reliability of the U.S. Medical Supply Chain During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Finance: Part 1: Protecting the Reliability of the U.S. Medical Supply Chain During the COVID-19 Pandemic, July 28, 2020 

WM,Trade: Trade, Manufacturing and Critical Supply Chains: Lessons from COVID-19, July 23, 2020 

This crisis is worse than you think. For whatever reason, the Coronavirus Task Force has ignored the first round of symptoms of this ailment. In my experience, it begins as a cold with heavy product. Bad timing made many sufferers believe that they had merely suffering from hay fever. There is then a week of dormancy. If you assume that exposure occurs two weeks prior to the first symptoms, there are four weeks, rather than two, before SARS symptoms are manifested, including fever, fatigue from low oxygen levels and fatigue from the manufacture of immunity (which feels like a gut punch over a two-week period). The CDC has just added nasal symptoms to the list, but has not yet emphasized their role in starting transmission.

In addition to masking, patients must quarantine from the first productive sneeze and stay isolated for three weeks or until the SARS and fatigue symptoms have passed, whichever is later. Every asymptomatic adult in the household must be quarantined until three weeks after everyone with symptoms has completed their quarantine. A society-wide shutdown is not required if this discipline is kept, both here and abroad. 

Most nations that shut down merely guaranteed a second wave. There are people who will get sick no matter what is done, usually those with degraded immune systems due to fastidious cleaning prior the pandemic. Young people who vape are also at high risk. The only way to assure the international supply chain is not interrupted is to limit quarantine to households where someone has nasal symptoms. The alternative is the supply chain coming to a screeching halt.

The following comments are from those submitted to the Ways and Means Subcommittee on Trade (which were excluded from Part 2 of this hearing):

Supply chains are global and many nations who have controlled the virus by shutting down the economy rather than tailored quarantines will quickly find that many with less robust immune systems will get very sick when it opens. There will be a second wave in these nations, and a third, and a fourth. The supply chain will be stressed, if not stopped, even if draconian openings and closings can be imposed in China.

Draconian measures may be efficient, but they may add a different kind of fever, one that the regime will likely underestimate. Revolution kills production lines once people have too much. China, Inc. may not be as efficient a partner in a post-revolutionary future. Workers with more freedom to bargain and vote will want more stuff, which means higher prices here. Higher prices mean higher wages will be required, but jobs will come back as the economy changes.

Current trade policy is the wrong way to go about long-term change, especially when led by an irresponsible actor. Let me restate what we have previously written from Trade Policy comments:
Trade negotiations with China ... have taken on the character of economic gunboat diplomacy, but without the Navy. These occur because the President is ill equipped by his background as a businessman to work cooperatively, which is the essence of governance in a free society. He has a freer hand in trade negotiations. Sadly, his experience as a CEO has not served the nation well. The modus operandi of most executives is to break things in order to be seen fixing them.  This must stop. The public is not amused, including the Chamber of Commerce, farmers and the stock and commodity markets.

Today's witness is not likely to say his boss is a vainglorious idiot, so allow me to. It is well known that in this Administration, professional diplomatic expertise is not valued. Mr. Trump prefers to shoot from the lip. The incompetence of this president is tragic for our ongoing trade policy, which relies on a high degree of professionalism and careful work over a period of several administrations.