Monday, July 28, 2025

Trump's Tax Cuts Were Worse than We Thought


The Trump cuts to corporations without matching loophole closures were ill-advised, leading to job losses as I also predicted in 2017. In 2019, the year after the Trump cuts made it through the economy, GDP growth went down a full percentage point. Then we had COVID, which the Fed used to hold all the bad investments from the TCJA harmless. When the economy started toward normality, the Trump cuts - as well as pandemic transfers to the fourth quintile - boosted the stock market as more investment income chased the same assets (or created junk assets - like ETFs with Crypto and Mortgage Securities baked in).

Keeping most of the Trump cuts were necessary for most people, even if the highest income households, who pay most of the taxes, got bigger dollar cuts. A huge number of the tax cuts changed the system - and should have been permanent in the first place. They were not so as to require a tax bill this year. Had they not expired, there would have been no vehicle to work with. Because the changes are now permanent, letting anything temporary die will have no impact.

Biden should have dealt with this issue, but did not find the votes - and the WH was as occupied with hiding is problems as the Trump 45 WH was in hiding Trump's. Now, they are letting Trump be Trump.

Taxes on capitalism (corporate, individual, partnership, Part S) did not change - and they need to because that is where the money is.

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