House Incumbents at Risk

In July 8th's Washington Post, Peter Baker and Claudia Dean report that House incumbents are in jeapordy. The approval rates for one's own representative are the lowest since 1994, when the Congress last changed hands. However, there is a caveat.

The survey suggests that it is not just Republicans whose incumbents are in
jeopardy. But it includes one important caveat -- as of now, few Republicans
or Democrats plan to stray from their parties in November. The Democrats'
lead stems from a big advantage among independents.

This is an important caveat. If the independents stay home the Republicans could well retain the majority. If this happens in the face of popular discontent, major shifts may be possible in 2008 (like, for instance, the emergence of a new party).