Election Post Mortem

It looks like the Democrats pulled it off. They not only got the majority, but they recaptured the Catholic vote from the Republicans, according to todays WaPo. They even decreased their loss of white Evangelicals by 7%. Its an interesting piece and pretty much says everything that needs to be said on the topic, although they did ignore the demographic reasons for the leftward swing of Christian voters (both Evangelical and Catholic). To put it bluntly, quite a few of them are now paying the death tax. The younger generations are just more tolerant on such issues as homosexuality and abortion. While they may not like either for themselves, they are not going to legislate these issues or elect folks who do.

This raises the question, is this party necessary? I had feared that the gerrymandering of 2002 would lock the Republicans into a majority (which is what they intended). The voters proved that this was not necessarily the case. The Democrats offered a slew of "Defense Democrats" including Jim Webb and almost a platoon of Gulf War veterans. They also made amends to the Casey family and nominated the scion of Governor Casey, who had been booed off the stage at a Democratic Convention for intimating that there was room in the party for pro-life Catholics.

Whether this new found inclusiveness takes in 2008 is an open question and depends on the legislative work about to commence. Of course, if a bipartisan coalition is created to deal rationally on tax policy, spending and the war, it may lay the groundwork for a new centrist party, especially if the exteremes in both parties try to seize the agenda back in 2008. If they thwart the obvious choice to deal with the war, retired General Wes Clark, and nominate someone who can't win the general election, look for the emergence of a third party in either 2008 or 2012.