CBO’s Updated Budget Outlook

Senate Budget, CBO’s Updated Budget Outlook, September 23, 2020

The Congressional Budget Office estimates are the gold standard in budget forecasting. In the near term, they hit the mark the closest. This year, however, their work is complicated by business closures, social distancing and a pandemic that is out of control.

The reason the pandemic is out of control is not mask wearing or young people at parties. People who rarely get sick do not spread the virus. To be an asymptomatic spreader, you must first be infected with stage one of the virus, which is a cold most people mistake for really bad hay fever. Because no one want to believe they have had Coronavirus due to the social stigma of having had it (people consider it to be a plague), few are willing to admit infection or the possibility of it.

Denial leads to infection of others, because there is an asymptomatic period between nasal symptoms and Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome #2. This is a misnomer – the symptoms occurred early (as stated) and, in the meantime, the virus has moved to the lower respiratory system, and from there, to the entire body. When symptoms come, an immune reaction has kicked in and spread is less likely.

Science is supposed to banish fear. With this pandemic, it multiplied the fear. The best preventative for SARS2 is to have colds prior to this pandemic and to be around children with colds. The second-best preventative is to get sick. Those under forty-five will hardly notice it as more than a cold, while those under 70 will rarely die. I had the disease. During the fatigue period coincident with SARS symptoms, I only wished for death or felt like I was already dead. I don’t recommend getting this once a vaccine is available, but few will be able to make the decision to wait. 

Worse, having had cold symptoms have been left off of the screening criteria for entering buildings, from the doctor’s office to the supermarket. The worst place to have nasal symptoms or ignore them is a restaurant. Some of us sneeze when we eat hot food. If we have the virus or someone else does, everyone does unless previously exposed. Eating with another person at home is another sure spreader. Not knowing or admitting that sneezes are the primary symptom and the tendency to rationalize being contagious away is why the spread is out of control. 

The desire to beat the virus with masks leads to optimistic models. Any model that does not assume 400,000 deaths or more is inadequate. A second shutdown, at least in some states, should also be included. The virus will go away sooner than later, likely before the vaccine is ready and the dead are buried.