Recommendations
for the
United
States Congress
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, H.R.1
Wednesday, December
13, 2017, 2:00 P.M.
By
Michael G. Bindner
Center
for Fiscal Equity
Chairmen Brady and Hatch and Ranking Members Neal and Wyden, thank you for indulging
us as frequent commentators for the record in one last set of suggestions to
the Conference Committee on H.R.1.
This is not the tax reform bill we had
hoped for. Frankly, the path negotiated during the Obama Administration enacted
under the American Tax Relief Act and The Budget Control Act were adequate to
give us our current economy, which is improving, albeit too slowly for workers.
We are on record predicting that enactment
of the Fiscal and Job Cuts Act (not a typo) will restrict wages and cause other
labor cost savings so that executives can cash in on the lower tax rates by
earning higher bonuses, so that any economic gains (and growth could come
faster) would be from deficit spending.
Countering with budget cuts, particularly
to seniors, the disabled and the poor, both worthy and unworthy, will lead to
the proceeds of these tax cuts being used for the kinds of assets that lead to
boom and bust cycles, most recently the 2008 Great Recession.
We believe that the economy can do better and
that some tax cuts are better than others, although entitlement reform is best pursed
inside of a tax reform that contains a subtraction value added tax/net business
receipts tax (NBRT), where certain entitlements can be shifted to employers in lieu
of paying a portion of the tax, with this encouraging both employment and participation
in training programs in order to have access to social services.
These deduction and credits could include everything
from the last two years of undergraduate and graduate education to a more robust
child tax credit to health care reform that encourages hiring medical staff directly
(thus matching the incentive to cut cost to the ability to do so) to retirement
savings in lieu of Social Security, although the savings should be in the form of
employer voting stock rather than unaccountable index funds run from Wall Street.
These reforms can be hammered out next year or in the next Congress, but the right
tax to hold them is clearly the NBRT.
Aside from the short term economic benefit to
workers from not giving CEOs an incentive to cut labor costs, we remind the Committee
that in the future we face a crisis, not in entitlements, but in net interest on
the debt, both from increased rates and growing principal. This growth will only
feasible until either China or the European Union develop tradeable debt instruments
backed by income taxation, which is the secret to the ability of the United States
to be the world’s bond issuer.
The national debt is possible because of
progressive income taxation. The liability for repayment, therefore, is a
function of that tax. The Gross Debt (we have to pay back trust funds too) is
$19 Trillion. Income Tax revenue is roughly $1.8 Trillion per year. That means
that for every dollar you pay in taxes, you owe $10.55 in debt. People who pay
nothing owe nothing. People who pay tens of thousands of dollars a year owe
hundreds of thousands.
The answer is not making the poor pay more or giving them
less benefits, either only slows the economy. Rich people must pay more and do
it faster. My child is becoming a social worker, although she was going to be
an artist. Don’t look to her to pay off the debt. Your children and
grandchildren and those of your donors are the ones on the hook unless their
parents step up and pay more. How’s that for incentive?
This proposal contains no analysis of the
last minute cost savings measures, such as repealing the interest deduction on
student loans or counting tuition waivers as imputed income or the loss of the
medical expenses tax. If the Byrd Rule can be avoided by bipartisan action,
these provisions should be stricken from the bill. They seemed like a dare to
Senator Sanders to run again. Be careful what you wish for.
Let us work toward a plan to attract large enough
bipartisan majorities to end concern over the Byrd Rule. Democratic donors will
be fired up whether they get a tax cut or not, so refusing to deal just to
monopolize the donor class will not work. Now that I have adequately offended
and preached to the majority, let me now provide you with assistance in passing
this bill.
We offer two scenarios at a high level, both
target and range values. Their budgetary impact has not been estimated recently
and their target is not a balanced budget at this time, alth0ugh one could be achieved
by adding a 13% goods and services tax and a higher income surtax. Until a more
robust growth rate is achieved, possibly triggering some wage inflation, balance
is not recommended at this time, although it must come soon.
The difference between the two proposals is
that consumption taxes will allow the income tax rates to go down and the standard
deductions to go up, because most labor is already taxed. The end of the
corporate income tax also eliminates the rational for separate dividend and
capital gains rates.
If Congress has the will, it can limit the number
of industry specific subtraction value added tax breaks. Whether these are retained
for a goods and services tax can be determined later. It is harder to demand a tax
break on profit to fund labor intensive activities when that tax also covers the
labor of those researchers. Additionally, consumption taxes limit the overlap between
labor and capital impacts essential to the corporate profits tax.
Finally, lower effective rates will result in
the SVAT/NBRT if all of the entitlement reforms discussed above are undertaken.
Indeed, the tax could be designed to go to almost zero (provided a goods and services
tax were enacted for discretionary civil and military spending, which could be zero
if that spending stopped, as could the income tax if the debt were minimized or
eliminated.
Scenario One: No consumption tax
Standard Deduction: $20,000
single, $40,000 joint
Income Tax: 13% to $80,000, 26% to $180,00, 39% single
13%
to $110,000, 26% to $240,000, 39% joint
Child Tax Credit: $6000 per child ($500 paid monthly by Treasury)
Inflation: Chained
CPI applies to SD, brackets and CTC
Social Security: Unchanged
Pass Through Rate: 26% (range 24% to
28%)
Corporate Income Tax: 26% (range 24% to 28%)
Dividend Rate: 26% (39% during repatriation)
Capital Gains Rate: 26% (39% during repatriation)
Inheritance Tax: Asset liquidations counted as normal income,
taxable after
26% rate and above
Estate Tax: Repealed
immediately
Scenario Two: Consumption tax included
Standard Deduction: $50,000 single, $100,000 joint
Subtraction VAT: 31% before deductions
and exclusions
Border Adjustment: VAT Reduced to 13%,
13% VAT added to imports
Social Security:
Employee: OASI
Unchanged, Disability, Health, ACA to SVAT
Employer: Moved
to Subtraction VAT, Credited equally
Corporate Income Tax: Repealed
Pass Through Rate: Repealed
Income Tax: 13%
to $130,000, 26% single
13% to $210,000, 26% joint
Dividend Rate: Normal Rate
Capital Gains Rate: Normal Rate
Inheritance Tax: Asset liquidations counted as normal income,
taxable after
26% bracket
Estate Tax: Repealed
immediately
Thank you for the opportunity to address the committee. We are, of course, available for direct
testimony or to answer questions by members and staff.